Starmer's Backers Begin 'Halt Andy Burnham' Effort to Thwart Manchester Mayor's Commons Comeback

Key supporters of Prime Minister Keir Starmer have allegedly started a coordinated effort to prevent Andy Burnham, the Labour Party Mayor of Greater Manchester, from making a return to the House of Commons. This move comes after the resignation of a Manchester MP, which has sparked an upcoming by-election.

Significant Obstacles in the Candidate Selection Procedure

Several members on the party's ruling NEC have reportedly suggested it would be extremely difficult for Mr. Burnham to successfully pass through the candidate selection procedure. This is largely due to the sizable number of supporters of the Prime Minister on the committee who are keen to avoid any potential challenge to Starmer's leadership.

The Labour party machine reportedly sprung into action following the revelation of the MP's intended departure, with party figures and MPs voicing warnings about the considerable expense and electoral danger of a resulting mayoral race in Greater Manchester.

Burnham's Ambitions and Party Concerns

Andy Burnham has been open about his political ambitions. Last year, he caused consternation within No 10 and among senior ministers when he remarked that many MPs had urged him to stand for the Labour leadership.

It has long been believed that he is seeking a seat in the Commons to potentially contest the party leadership if a contest to Sir Keir emerge. However, allies of the Mayor have warned against exaggerating the extent of any planning, stating he is deeply committed to his current role and would solely return national politics if he felt he had a meaningful contribution to make.

"People want to paint him as scheming and plotting but that’s absolutely not where he is. He loves being mayor of Manchester. It would only ever be an option if felt he had something to offer," one ally said.

Political Landscape and Public Approval

Amid polls suggesting Sir Keir is struggling in the polls and many MPs despondent about Labour's fate at the forthcoming election, Andy Burnham is seen as the sole prominent Labour personality with consistently positive public approval ratings.

If Mr. Burnham choose to stand, several hurdles stand in his way. He would need to be selected by the NEC—where the odds are not in his favour—and then win the by-election against competition from Reform and pro-Gaza independents, all prior to any potential leadership challenge.

The 'Stop Andy' Campaign

High-ranking Labour figures have indicated that a "Stop Andy" campaign is already in progress, with the party machinery being tightly controlled by key allies of the Prime Minister.

The Prime Minister personally said that the by-election procedure was in its "initial phases" and urged his MPs to cease discussion of possible leadership challenges.

Andy Burnham, speaking before the MP's resignation was finalised, told reporters: "People shouldn’t rush to conclusions. I have been very focused on my role as mayor of Greater Manchester."

Costs and Risks

NEC members have allegedly cited not only personal opposition towards Mr. Burnham but also the prohibitive cost of a by-election for mayor in Greater Manchester. This could divert an estimated £500,000 in campaign funds from other key electoral battles across the country.

"It is deeply selfish of Andy to want to run for this – costing us tens of thousands we don’t have and diverting activist resources... It is absurd beyond description and cannot be allowed," an insider claimed.

Several insiders also shared concerns about Reform UK potentially win the mayoralty created by Mr. Burnham, which would represent a major symbolic victory for them.

Union Influence and Procedural Fears

As a publicly elected mayor, Mr. Burnham would require the NEC's permission to run. It is also possible the committee could enforce an women-only shortlist to prevent his candidacy.

Yet, one Burnham ally warned against presuming the NEC would simply reject him, even though Sir Keir's team is widely thought to control it.

The unions hold a significant number of seats on the NEC. While the biggest unions are currently remaining quiet, insiders indicated they would be uncomfortable with anything seen as interference from Downing Street.

The leader of the Fire Brigades Union stated: "It would be a democratic outrage if Andy Burnham was blocked... Our union will fiercely resist any attempts to stitch up the selection. It’s vital that there is a full and open democratic procedure."

Electoral Challenges

The constituency in question holds a sizable Labour lead. However, Reform is likely to mount a significant campaign, building on support in one part of the constituency. Labour assesses it is on firmer ground in the more populous Greater Manchester section, though it could encounter some pressure from independent candidates.

If Mr. Burnham re-enter the Commons, he would need the support of 80 Labour MPs to mount a leadership challenge, a hurdle that is not guaranteed given he is viewed with scepticism by some on the parliamentary party.

The resigning MP confirmed he was stepping down due to deteriorating mental health, which had made it impossible for him to continue in his role. He is also under a standards inquiry related to his involvement in an offensive online group.